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“It is expected that by 2050, the structure of the global energy system will undergo a fundamental adjustment, and competition among different fuel types will become more intense.”
On September 14, BP (hereinafter referred to as BP) released a new “BP World Energy Outlook (2020 Edition)” (hereinafter referred to as “Outlook”) to make the above statement.
The outlook explores the possible path of global energy transformation and the possible evolution of global energy market in the next 30 years,
Outlook pointed out that before 2050, the growth of global energy demand will continue, but the structure of energy demand will undergo fundamental changes, the overall proportion of fossil fuels will continue to decrease, the overall proportion of renewable energy will continue to grow, and electrification will play a more important role in the energy demand structure.
Based on the possible assumptions of different policies and social preferences, the outlook draws inferences on three possible scenarios of energy transformation in 2050. The three scenarios are rapid transition scenario, net zero scenario and business as usual scenario.
The scenario of rapid transformation is represented by the implementation of relevant policies and measures, especially the significant increase of carbon price. Net zero scenario, that is, the above policy measures are further strengthened by society and consumers, such as the widespread application of circular economy and sharing economy, and the conversion of low-carbon energy categories.
The three scenarios all believe that the low-carbon transformation of energy system will bring more diversified energy structure. With the advancement of global electrification process, the proportion of oil, gas and coal in the energy system will decrease.
Outlook predicts that based on different energy transformation scenarios, the proportion of oil, gas and coal in global primary energy will drop from 85% in 2018 to 20% – 65% in 2050, and the proportion of renewable energy will rise to 20% – 60%.
Among them, oil demand showed a downward trend in the three scenarios. In the fast transition scenario, oil demand will fall by 55% in 2050 and 80% in the net zero scenario. In novel coronavirus pneumonia, the demand for oil will not fully recover to the level before the outbreak of the new crown pneumonia in these two scenarios.
BP group chief executive officer Lu Bona said that the global epidemic of the new crown epidemic has caused a significant reduction in global carbon emissions, but the world is still on an unsustainable development path.
“The outlook analysis points out that energy transformation can still be achieved through the implementation of decisive policies and the provision of more low-carbon options.” Mr Lu said.
BP put forward in the outlook that in order to continuously reduce greenhouse gas emissions from energy use, all parties need to firmly implement relevant policies, such as significantly increasing carbon prices and other measures.
According to the outlook, under the fast transition scenario, carbon emissions from energy use will be reduced by 70% in 2050 compared with that in 2018; under the net zero scenario, carbon emissions in 2050 will be reduced by at least 95% compared with that in 2018.
In the low-carbon transformation of energy system, natural gas will play a more potential important role.
“Outlook” pointed out that in developing countries with rapid economic growth, the growth rate of renewable and other non fossil energy is not enough to replace coal demand, but the use of natural gas can reduce the use of coal; in addition, natural gas combined with CCUs technology can achieve zero carbon or near zero carbon power generation. CCUs technology refers to carbon capture, utilization and storage technology.
In the process of large-scale carbon removal in the energy system, the role of hydrogen and bioenergy has become increasingly prominent.
“Outlook” pointed out that reducing the use of traditional fossil energy has also promoted the development of bioenergy, including liquid biofuels for transportation, biomethane as an alternative to natural gas, and biomass energy for power industry.
Under the fast transition scenario and net zero scenario, the proportion of hydrogen energy in the total amount of terminal energy consumption (excluding non combustion use) will increase by about 7% and 16% respectively in 2050, and the proportion of bioenergy in primary energy will reach about 7% and 10% respectively.
Its oil and gas production will also achieve zero carbon emission reduction by 2050.
By 2023, methane detection systems will be installed on all major BP oil and gas production projects, reducing methane concentration by 50%.
On August 4, BP announced its new 10-year strategy, saying it would transform from an international oil company focused on producing resources to a comprehensive energy company focused on providing solutions for customers.
In the next decade, BP’s oil and gas production will be reduced by at least 1 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, equivalent to a reduction of 40% from the level in 2019.