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Recently, the global commodity market, some commodity prices have a warming trend. However, analysts worry that due to the rise of the second wave of the epidemic in some countries and regions, the price rise of the bulk commodity market will be subject to weak demand and damaged supply in the rest of 2020, and the price trend of different commodities will be different.
Commodity prices recovered
Recently, countries began to return to work and production, and commodity prices also showed some upward momentum. Novel coronavirus pneumonia needs to release more liquidity and push up prices, which also raised commodity prices to a certain extent.
The novel coronavirus pneumonia epidemic affected commodity prices in the two quarter to the bottom, and then began to appear oversold rebound, and in the supply side tightening and loose capital situation rose to close to the level before the epidemic. In the third quarter of 2020, commodity prices continued to fluctuate and rebound, but at the end of the quarter, due to the drag of oil prices, there was a slight correction. At present, the overall commodity price is still 15% – 20% lower than that before the epidemic.
According to Citibank’s research report, since June, global mining supply has recovered, the price of extractive commodities other than steam coal has basically rebounded, and high-cost industries such as copper, aluminum, steel and coking coal have basically resumed production. Nonferrous metals prices rose, but copper prices slowed down due to sluggish demand.
Comparatively speaking, the market of agricultural products is better than that of industrial products. In the Chicago market of the United States, corn futures continued to rise, rising about 30% in two months since August.
This year’s abnormal climate will lead to a decrease in production and an increase in feed demand brought about by an increase in the number of pigs, making the supply and demand of corn tense. In addition, the La Nina phenomenon occurred during September this year and is likely (about 75% of the chance) to continue throughout the winter in the northern hemisphere. When this climate occurs, crops such as beans usually lose production, which is also the reason why agricultural products perform better. At present, La Nina is already threatening grain planting in South America, and the ability to cope with natural disasters in South America is relatively weak and may be difficult to cope with.
The price of Brent crude oil rose from a peak of $40 to $46 at the beginning of the third quarter. However, due to the lack of fundamental support, it immediately fell back and fluctuated around $40.
Market demand facing the test of epidemic situation
Global commodity markets were sluggish in September due to concerns that the epidemic will continue to ferment. It is expected that in the fourth quarter, the expectation of the epidemic will be the most important factor influencing the global commodity market.
The global economy has been partially suspended due to the epidemic, and the economic stall has hurt the total demand for industrial products most obviously. The performance prospect of crude oil and energy chemicals in the year is still poor due to the demand.
“Early signs of economic recovery in some parts of the world have been overshadowed by fragile conditions and growing skepticism about the pace of recovery,” according to a document at the October meeting of the OPEC Commission
The basic scenario forecast shown in this document is that the oil market will have an average shortage of 1.9 million barrels / day in 2021, which is lower than the 2.7 million barrels / day shortage predicted by the basic scenario of the previous month. But the paper shows that under the worst scenario scenario scenario, the market may have a surplus of 200000 B / D in 2021.
In the worst case scenario scenario scenario, OECD commercial oil inventories, the OPEC + measure of the market, will remain above the five-year average in 2021, rather than begin to fall below that level. This shows that it is difficult for oil demand to improve basically in the near future.
In the gold market, the gold price broke through 2000 US dollars / troy ounces in August, setting a record high. Global central banks turned to net gold sales in August for the first time in about a year and a half. Against this background, novel coronavirus pneumonia in the emerging market countries, which are leading to a decrease in foreign exchange earnings, is the focus of the new crown pneumonia epidemic. The analysis shows that for emerging market countries with potential foreign exchange liquidity, the rise of gold price in US dollar is also an easy factor to induce gold sales.
In fact, in novel coronavirus pneumonia expansion in the first half of 2020, gold buying volume has decreased by 4 compared to last year, only 233 tons, a slowdown trend. Novel coronavirus pneumonia is expected to take a long time to complete and the trend of gold buying is likely to last for some time, market analysts believe.
Future price trend faces risks
In terms of crude oil, due to the increase of OPEC’s resistance to production reduction, the effect of production reduction is reduced. The subsequent trend mainly depends on the change of demand side. It is estimated that the oil price may fluctuate around $35-40. In the medium and long term, the recovery of crude oil demand still needs time.
Novel coronavirus pneumonia is a major trend in the price of metals, and the impact of the new supply of demand on the relationship between the supply and demand and the macroeconomic policy is also mainly affected by the price trend. Nonferrous metals are cautiously bullish in the fourth quarter, and the increase will be lower than that in the third quarter. International steel prices may also rise slightly with the impact of the recovery of international economic activities.
The impact of commodity price fluctuations is not only from demand, but also from the supply side. At present, the novel coronavirus pneumonia epidemic is widely believed to be spreading more rapidly in the winter, and the rising rate of infection in some countries or regions will lead to another stop production. In terms of mining industry, the biggest pressure is on the production of nickel sulfate and palladium. Russia, the main producer, is currently the fourth largest country in the world in terms of cumulative infection. At present, one