中文
Recently, driven by such factors as the expected recovery of the global economy, the international commodity market has warmed up, industrial products such as crude oil, basic metals and iron ore have gradually strengthened, and safe haven assets such as precious metals and US bonds have fallen.
As of 17:00, November 25, Beijing time, NYMEX crude oil was at 45.3 U.S. dollars / barrel, with a monthly cumulative increase of more than 26%. Gold prices, which had been trading sideways for more than three months, began to show signs of fatigue. On the 24th of the US Eastern time, gold prices once fell below the $1800 / oz mark, with a cumulative decline of more than 3% in November.
Most of the experts interviewed said that in recent years, positive news about vaccine research and development, European and American economy and other aspects have been frequent, and the market sentiment has significantly recovered. Industrial products represented by crude oil have risen sharply, which has suppressed the trend of precious metals. However, crude oil and other industrial products are also constrained by factors such as production capacity and downstream demand. There is also uncertainty in the recovery of overseas economy. Investors should not be too optimistic about the international commodity market.
Xi Jiarui, an analyst with jinlianchuang crude oil, told the Shanghai Securities News that the expected increase of US economic stimulus plan and the progress of new crown vaccine research are conducive to the recovery of crude oil market, and positive factors have begun to gather, laying a good foundation for the crude oil market next year.
Some analysts are cautious about rising oil prices. Zhong Jian, chief analyst of Zhuo Chuang information energy, said that from the perspective of capital changes, oil prices are still likely to decline. Oil prices have been trading sideways for about six months at the price of $40 / barrel, which is really rare. One of the important reasons is that the global capital has adjusted between risk assets and safe haven assets, which has reduced the fund activity in the crude oil futures market.
As a hedge against inflation, gold broke records repeatedly in the third quarter of this year, and then fluctuated around $1900 / oz. Since the beginning of November, the international gold price has been declining day by day, falling below the $1800 / oz mark this week.
Gu Fengda, director of Guoxin futures research and consulting department, said that the US markitpmi strengthened in November, far exceeding market expectations, with the service sector PMI rebounding to 57.7, a 68 month high; the US manufacturing PMI rebounded to 56.7, a 74 month high; and the employment sub index hit a record high. These data show that the U.S. economic activity is recovering actively, and the end demand is strengthening, and the strong performance suppresses the trend of precious metals.
“It should be noted that the market expects that the US monetary easing policy will continue, and the full vaccination of the new crown vaccine will still take a long time. Before that, the pressure on the overseas real economy is difficult to reverse, and the market capital’s preference for precious metal investment may be repeated.” Mr Gu said.
Akash Dushi, head of commodity research at Citi, said the news of better vaccine development weakened gold prices, but it would not end the long cycle of gold’s rise. As long as U.S. monetary policy does not unexpectedly shift to hawks, gold prices are expected to rise to $2000 / oz in 2021.
According to the latest opinion of Goldman Sachs, the recent correction of gold price is fluctuation rather than turning point, and gold price will rise when more evidence of inflation appears, such as the strong CPI data of the United States. As a result, the 12-month target price of US $2300 / oz remains unchanged.