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According to foreign news on December 24, global oil demand in 2021 is expected to rebound from the lowest point of the anti epidemic blockade, but the surge of crude oil in the Middle East and the strong growth of biofuels will have an impact on global crude oil and refiners.
In order to promote economic recovery, OPEC seems to be ready to gradually relax production restrictions, and the organization is closely watching the impact of the launch of the new crown vaccine on demand.
According to S & P global Platts analytics, by 2021, global crude oil supply is expected to increase by an average of 3.5 million B / D, almost all of which will come from OPEC group, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia.
Proctor’s analysis believes that although it relies on the unpredictable OPEC production policy, about 70% of the growth of crude oil supply next year may come from the Middle East, because Saudi Arabia and other nuclear oil producing countries will increase the total supply to the market by 800000 B / d.
In contrast, in countries other than OPEC, production in the United States is expected to fall further by an average of 1 million B / D in 2021, as extensive drilling cuts will lead to higher production cuts.
In addition to the greater potential supply fluctuation that may be caused by the interruption of Middle East crude oil supply, the increasing dependence on Middle East crude oil also has an impact on the average quality of global crude oil.
The rebound of OPEC supply means that over the years, the rapid growth of light and low sulfur crude oil in the United States will reverse the situation and be replaced by medium and high sulfur crude oil in the Middle East.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) once again warned in October that the growing gap between refining capacity and refined oil demand has put refiners in a crisis.
Due to the increasing market share of petroleum products in non-traditional refining systems, their market share is further squeezed.
This comes from two dimensions: the rapidly growing supply of biofuels and the petrochemical feedstock from liquefied natural gas.
Driven by national fuel regulations, biofuel supply is also expected to resume growth next year.
Proctor analysis said that demand for ethanol fuel and biodiesel is expected to rebound by more than 300000 B / D next year, and continue to exceed the growth of crude oil demand.
With the support of increasing attention to clean fuel policy after the epidemic, IEA predicts that by 2025, the production of biofuels for transportation will reach 186.1 billion liters, or 3.21 million barrels / day, an increase of 14% compared with the level in 2019.
Globally, biofuels will meet about 5.4% of road transport energy demand in 2025, compared with slightly less than 4.8% in 2019, the report predicts.
The return of strong growth in LNG supply means shrinking crude oil market share.
The IEA said that in the next 10 years, the demand for liquefied natural gas and biofuels will increase by 3 million B / D to 23.6 million B / D, accounting for 22% of the world’s liquid fuels.
Wood Mackenzie estimates that by 2023, 1.4 million B / D of refining capacity in Europe is under serious threat of closure.
The agency believes that by then, the regional refining profit margin may fall to a new low, with 65% of the factories’ net cash profit margin being zero or negative.
Terrible profits and low utilization may continue to drive the current trend that refineries in the United States and Europe either retrofit existing refineries or start collaborative processing of renewable diesel or HVO (hydrotreated vegetable oil) in their facilities.
The epidemic has also intensified the emphasis on chemical recovery technology, which will further curb the demand for crude oil and expand the gap between production capacity and crude oil operation.
With the outbreak of the epidemic, the global oil supply pool will change rapidly next year. Refiners may be most impressed by the acceleration of the theme of replacing low-carbon fuels in the future, rather than the speed of demand rebound.