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OPEC issued a statement on the 27th, saying that the ministerial meeting of OPEC and non OPEC oil producing countries decided to continue to implement the plan of gradually increasing production from May to July formulated in early April. At the beginning of April, OPEC and non OPEC oil producing countries agreed to increase production by 350000 barrels per day in May, the same increase rate in June as in May, and about 440000 barrels per day in July.
OPEC said that with the support of loose monetary and fiscal policies, the global economic recovery will continue this year and accelerate in the second half of the year. Recently, however, COVID-19 rebound in some countries may hinder economic and oil demand recovery.
Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak said 27 days that oil demand is recovering, but COVID-19’s rapid spread in some areas is worrying.
Ann Louis hitter, vice president of macro oil market research at wood McKenzie, said that major oil producing countries insisted on implementing the decision of gradual and cautious increase in production, trying to balance the decline in demand that may occur in India and other places due to the rebound of the epidemic with the recovery of demand that may occur in other places.
Marshall Steves, an energy market analyst at Exin Huamai, said that although there is a view that the increase in crude oil demand brought about by the economic recovery of the United States and the United Kingdom can make up for the decrease in India’s crude oil demand, the increase in the number of new coronavirus infections in India is worrisome and is likely to hinder the growth of global demand.
Austria’s JBC energy report shows that, affected by the rebound of the epidemic, India’s diesel and gasoline consumption in the first half of April fell by 3% and 5% respectively on a month on month basis. India’s gasoline and diesel demand is expected to drop by 29% and 20% respectively in May compared with March.
In addition to demand, another major uncertainty facing oil prices is that the parties to the Iran nuclear agreement are discussing the prospect of the United States returning to the agreement, Hitler said. If the United States and Iran jointly resume compliance with the Iran nuclear agreement, the United States may lift sanctions against Iran, and Iran will provide more crude oil to the global market.
Giovanni staunovo, an oil analyst at UBS group, said recently that the global average daily crude oil demand is expected to rise in the second half of this year due to the rapid vaccination of new crown vaccine and the reduction of travel restrictions. By then, Brent crude oil and New York crude oil futures prices will rise to more than $70 a barrel. If geopolitical factors lead to a sharp drop in supply, oil prices may rise even higher.
However, Jim ritzburg, President of ritzburg associates, believes that the “OPEC +” increase in production is intertwined with the weakening demand for crude oil in Asia, indicating that the global crude oil supply surplus may intensify and the situation of crude oil surplus eased, which has provided support for oil prices in the past year.