中文
By the mid-1920s, there will be a global copper supply gap of nearly 6 million tons, but the projects that need to fill this gap are facing many difficulties.
Since hitting an intraday high of $4.888 per pound (US $10776 per ton) in May, the copper market has cooled significantly, but its long-term fundamentals remain bullish due to global efforts to electrify transportation and shift to renewable power generation.
Erik Heimlich, chief copper analyst of CRU group, pointed out at the seminar that there will be a long-term supply gap of 5.9 million tons from the mid-1920s.
Heimlich said the industry did not face a supply gap measured by historical standards, which has exceeded 5 million tons in the past seven years, including 2015 and 2016, when the commodity market was at the bottom of a brutal downward cycle and the value of copper was only half what it is now.
Nevertheless, the industry faces many challenges in filling this gap, and developers will be forced to put these projects into production through an increasingly complex and stressful process, according to Heimlich.
First, increasing ESG concerns and stakeholder demands will change project approval trends in the industry in the coming decades. Environmental, local community and land ownership issues pose major obstacles to many of these projects, and those that seem likely today will soon enter the stage of possibility or speculation.
In addition, the environmental license obtained by the joint venture of Wafi golpu, harmony gold and newcrest mining in Papua New Guinea returned to court last month for opposing the disposal plan of deep sea tailings.
Also in April, a Chilean court ordered a special review of Norte Abierto’s impact on indigenous people, a green space project jointly owned by Barrick and Newmont, which have recently been promoting their copper ambitions to investors.
Peru’s presidential election could be a fatal blow to Southern Copper’s TIA Maria copper project, which has been shut down twice due to community and environmental protests.
Chile’s new royalty system may be diluted, but there are still uncertainties. In addition to the tortuous licensing process, environmental considerations will also cause serious damage to the project economy.
Infrastructure costs are also rising (those desalination plants and power lines are not cheap), and as ore grades get lower and lower, larger infrastructure has to be built.
Kaz minerals’ proposed baimskaya mine in the remote Chukchi area (70 million tons of ore per year) is a good example of how these expenditures have expanded rapidly.
Kaz saw the cost of the project soar to $8 billion after the Russian government decided that the miner had to contribute to new infrastructure projects in the region. In addition, Kazakhstan’s mining enterprises, which are about to be privatized, have delayed the project for at least one year.
Heimlich said that current copper prices provide sufficient impetus for the construction of these mines, and since 2015, some regions, especially Russia and the Central African copper belt, have been able to enhance the status of most projects.
In addition, the capital intensity of new copper projects has remained stable in recent years, despite problems in project management and budget. From 2009 to 2015, the capital required per ton of production capacity soared from just over $10000 to nearly $20000, which is still the case today