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International crude oil prices have been continuously falling recently,but the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries(OPEC)remains cautious and optimistic about the future market fundamentals.
On December 13th,OPEC released the December Global Oil Demand Report.The report shows that OPEC will maintain the global oil demand growth rate at 2.5 million barrels per day in 2023,with an expected demand growth rate of 2.2 million barrels per day in 2024.
OPEC stated that the expected growth in global demand this year is mainly driven by China and other non OECD regions.It is expected that the total oil demand of these countries will increase by nearly 2.4 million barrels per day in 2023,and the oil demand of OECD countries is expected to increase by 100000 barrels per day this year.
OPEC continues to predict in its monthly report that there will be a severe shortage of global oil supply in the next quarter,which is inconsistent with OPEC’s announcement of greater production reduction measures last month.The OPEC research department predicts that there will be a huge shortage of approximately 1.8 million barrels of oil per day in the first quarter of 2024.Previously,OPEC and its allies had promised to reduce their daily supply of 900000 barrels of oil starting from January next year,which means it will further widen the expected gap.
OPEC’s recent plan to deepen production cuts has failed to prevent a drop in oil prices,as people doubt whether its member countries will fully comply with their voluntary production reduction commitments.Since late September this year,crude oil prices have fallen by about a quarter,and as of now,Brent crude oil prices are at$73.88 per barrel.
Arne Lohmann Rasmussen,Head of Global Risk Management Research at A/S,said,”The oil market may be in trouble until data confirms OPEC’s production reduction in the first quarter of next year.”
In addition,OPEC wrote in its report that the economic growth of most major economies in the first three quarters of this year was better than expected.Therefore,OPEC predicts a global economic growth rate of 2.9%in 2023.Moreover,OPEC believes that this strong economic growth is expected to continue into 2024,with an estimated global economic growth rate of 2.6%in 2024.OPEC believes that good economic growth expectations for 2023 and 2024 will play a decisive role in driving global oil demand growth.
In terms of inventory,OPEC stated that based on preliminary data from October 2023,the total commercial oil inventory of the OECD decreased by 12.8 million barrels month on month,with inventory levels reaching 2.818 billion barrels,which is 128 million barrels lower than the average from 2015 to 2019.
In terms of supply,OPEC predicts that non OPEC supply will increase by 1.8 million barrels per day in 2023,and it is worth noting that the United States is expected to account for about 70%of this growth.OPEC predicts that non OPEC supply will increase by 1.4 million barrels per day year-on-year in 2024.The factors driving supply growth include an increase in shale oil production in the United States,the launch of offshore projects in Latin America and the North Sea,and the expansion of Canadian oil sands projects.