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On Wednesday local time,OPEC stated in its monthly oil market report that it will maintain its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2024,with a daily increase of 2.25 million barrels.The organization believes that,driven by global economic recovery,global oil demand will continue to grow strongly in 2025.
OPEC predicts that global oil demand will increase by 1.85 million barrels per day in 2025,which is lower than this year’s demand growth forecast and the first forecast by OPEC for 2025.It is worth noting that the forecast for next year’s oil market in this report is several months ahead of previous years.OPEC explained that the early release is to provide long-term guidance to the market.”Beyond the previously established short-term forecasting time range,it helps consumers understand market dynamics.”
Compared to other forecasting agencies such as the International Energy Agency(IEA),OPEC has been more optimistic about the growth of energy demand in 2024.In recent years,the two major organizations have been at odds on issues such as long-term demand and the necessity of investment.
It is far from clear whether OPEC’s optimistic expectations will be confirmed.The organization’s data shows that the market supply was extremely tight at the end of last year,when the organization announced that it would further reduce production by 900000 barrels per day to maintain supply and demand balance.The report shows that the supply gap reached a record level in the fourth quarter of last year,but the sharp drop in crude oil prices masked this.
OPEC expects non OPEC countries to see an increase of 1.3 million barrels per day in oil supply by 2025.Therefore,unless Saudi Arabia and its allies significantly increase production,the supply gap in the oil market will continue until the end of 2025.
OPEC also lowered its oil production data to reflect Angola’s announcement of its withdrawal from the organization last month.Analysts believe that Angola’s withdrawal will bring downward pressure on oil prices,as other member countries may no longer adhere to their production targets as a result.
OPEC predicts that global economic growth will rebound from 2.6%this year to 2.8%next year,as central banks around the world are expected to start cutting interest rates from the second half of 2024.”Non OECD economies will continue to maintain healthy growth levels and will account for a significant proportion of global economic growth next year.”
On the same day,OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais stated in another statement,”In any reliable and strong short-term forecast,there has been no peak in oil demand.”He refuted the claim that climate change will limit the use of fossil fuels.
In recent months,despite the increasing geopolitical risks in the Middle East,oil prices have remained weak,mainly due to selling pressure from speculators,according to OPEC.
Marco Dunand,CEO of Mercuria Energy Group,a commodities trader,said that in the face of weak demand growth and high US production,OPEC+may need to further reduce production to maintain oil prices at current levels.