中文
The International Energy Agency(IEA)predicts in its recent oil market report that global oil demand growth will halve,from 2.3 million barrels per day in 2023 to 1.2 million barrels per day this year.The GDP growth of major economies is lower than expected,and the improvement of energy efficiency and electrification of vehicles have suppressed oil demand.
The IEA pointed out,”In 2023,the growth rate of demand from countries outside of China significantly slowed down.In 2024,China will continue to lead the growth of oil demand,and China’s continuously developing petrochemical industry will require more oil.It is expected that global oil supply will increase by 1.5 million barrels per day in 2024,reaching a new high of 103.5 million barrels per day.In 2024,the Americas will dominate the supply.”
After a sharp increase in production in the fourth quarter of 2023,global oil supply is expected to decline in January 2024 due to the impact of cold weather sweeping across the United States and Canada on the oil industry.At the beginning of 2024,the risk of global oil supply disruptions due to geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East remained high,especially for oil tankers transported through the Red Sea and Suez Canal.In 2023,approximately 10%of global maritime oil trade and 8%of LNG trade passed through this main trade route.
The IEA warns that the main alternative routes around the Cape of Good Hope in Africa have extended the voyage by two weeks,adding pressure to the global supply chain and increasing freight and insurance costs.IEA has prepared for supply disruptions.The IEA member countries hold a total of approximately 4 billion barrels of inventory,including 1.2 billion barrels of government controlled inventory specifically held in emergency situations.This helps alleviate market anxiety and anxiety among governments,industries,and energy consumers.
The US Energy Information Agency(EIA)predicted in its short-term energy outlook released earlier this month that global oil consumption will increase by 1.39 million barrels per day in 2024,reaching 102.46 million barrels per day.The short-term energy outlook for January shows that the total global oil production in 2024 is expected to be 690000 barrels per day higher than in 2023,reaching 102.34 million barrels per day.The EIA predicts that the growth rate of global oil consumption will slow down in the next two years,with consumption expected to increase by 1.4 million barrels per day(growth rate of 1.4%)in 2024 and 1.2 million barrels per day(growth rate of 1.2%)in 2025.
Although the consumption growth rates in 2024 and 2025 are expected to be lower than in 2023,they are consistent with the average annual growth rate of global oil consumption from 2004 to 2023(1.2%).Despite the slowdown in oil demand growth,it is expected that global oil consumption will reach a new high by 2025,exceeding 103.5 million barrels per day.The growth of global oil production will also slow down.Due to OPEC+continuing to reduce production,the growth of US tight oil production has slowed down,with production expected to increase by 600000 barrels per day in 2024,compared to 1.7 million barrels per day in 2023.In 2025,it is expected that global oil production will increase by 1.6 million barrels per day,with approximately 50%being OPEC+oil producing countries.