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Jalan Resta,CEO of Rystad,a Norwegian energy consulting firm,said that last year was a crucial year for the energy market,with rapid expansion of renewable energy capacity,catching up with global electricity demand growth for the first time.There may be more turning points in energy transformation this year,and the impact will continue into the second half of the 1930s.
Geopolitics has a greater impact on the oil market
George Leon,Senior Vice President of Oil Market Research at Rystad,stated that oil is the most political commodity among all commodities.This year,about 4.2 billion people worldwide will face political changes in elections in over 70 countries,which will have a significant impact on national politics and geopolitics,and inevitably affect the oil market.The ambitious climate policy of the European Union and the ongoing conflict in the Middle East may disrupt the global energy market.
Natural gas helps to meet energy demand and support energy transformation
Southwest,Senior Vice President of Market Research for Rystad Natural Gas and Liquefied Natural Gas(LNG),stated that natural gas will continue to help solve the energy dilemma of safety,affordability,and sustainability this year,with global natural gas production expected to increase by 3%.Compared to last year,investment in new LNG projects will slow down this year,but it will still maintain a strong level.Natural gas will play a promoting role in the energy transition process,especially in the power sector.In the foreseeable future,the world will still rely on natural gas,especially in Europe.
The trend of mergers and acquisitions entering the supply chain
Oden Martinson,head of supply chain research at Rystad,stated that the integration trend that is plaguing the upstream oil and gas industry will cross into the supply chain in 2024.The increase in cash flow will encourage suppliers to seek acquisition opportunities in order to passively increase production capacity.The same applies to the oil and clean energy markets.Considering the peak activity period in the oil and gas industry this year and the overcapacity of low-carbon industries,actively expanding production capacity may not be the most optimal choice.
Hydrogen projects will develop rapidly
Atim Abramov,head of clean technology research at Rystad,stated that in addition to early commercial scale projects in the Middle East,Australia,and Africa,global clean hydrogen activities are surging under the driving force of mature policies in Europe and the United States.
Slowing growth of shale oil and gas industry in the United States
Rystad Upstream Research Director Espoon Eringsen said that oil prices will remain high in the short term,but the constantly changing strategy of the US shale oil and gas industry means that the growth rate of shale oil and gas production will not be as fast as in previous years.This year,investment in the shale oil and gas sector in the United States will not increase,production will remain relatively stable,and long-term high oil prices may come.
Significant increase in installed capacity of renewable energy generation
Rystad’s head of renewable energy and electricity research,Diaz,said that this year will be another record breaking year for solar and wind power,with global installed capacity for solar and wind power increasing by over 510 gigawatts.The resulting electricity will meet most of the growing demand and help limit the demand for fossil fuel power generation.Governments around the world need to develop appropriate incentive measures for renewable energy projects to ensure that this momentum continues.
The Rise of Supply Management Framework for Finished Oil Market
Rystad’s downstream oil trading director,Mukesh Sadev,stated that China’s refining industry has adjusted its strategy by adjusting crude oil import quotas from quarterly to annual,and expanding product export quotas to independent refining enterprises.The combined refining capacity of China,the Middle East,and Russia is about 38 million barrels per day,surpassing that of North America and Europe.The rise of supply management frameworks in the refined oil market will be an emerging trend worth paying attention to in the coming year.
Offshore wind power has not yet overcome its difficulties,but its long-term prospects are strong
According to Flottel,the head of Rystad’s offshore wind power department,inflation,interest rates,and supply chain issues caused setbacks in offshore wind power projects last year.Although there is uncertainty in the market,the final investment decisions for global(excluding China)offshore wind power projects exceeded 12 gigawatts last year,reaching a historic high,indicating that activity levels will also remain healthy in the coming years.In addition,governments around the world will continue to increase auction volumes and focus on issuing licenses more quickly.
Coal power generation will begin to decline
Steve Helton,Global Coal Industry Research Director at Rystad,stated that global coal-fired power generation is expected to decline this year.Due to the start of braking on new coal-fired power projects in Asia,it is expected that coal power generation will decrease by 33.7 terawatt hours,with an annual decrease of 0.3%.The surge in installed capacity of renewable energy generation and the aging of coal-fired power plants will make the balance clearly lean towards non fossil energy alternatives,while the decline in the proportion of coal in the power structure will only accelerate.