中文
During the May Day holiday,international crude oil futures prices showed a weak downward trend.The cumulative decline in WTI crude oil futures prices was 5.73%,and the cumulative decline in Brent crude oil futures prices was 3.65%.On the first trading day after the holiday,the domestic crude oil futures contract 2406 fell sharply by 4.25%to 419 yuan/barrel.Currently,with the effective release of bearish sentiment,there has been a divergence between long and short positions in the crude oil market,and futures prices have temporarily stopped falling and stabilized.
Macro bearish sentiment effectively released
Since 2024,from CPI to PPI and consumer long-term inflation expectations have all indicated that inflation in the United States is suffering from a”chronic disease”and will not be completely”cured”soon.It is reported that in March 2024,the US CPI increased by 3.5%year-on-year and 0.4%month on month.The core CPI increased by 3.8%year-on-year and 0.4%month on month,both exceeding market expectations.Affected by this,the Federal Reserve continued to maintain the benchmark interest rate range unchanged at its May interest rate meeting and slowed down the pace of balance sheet tightening.Given the current optimistic economic data in the United States and the continued stickiness of inflation,the market expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates for the first time this year in September or November.Recently,the crude oil market has weakened its macro impact after digesting the bearish impact of the delayed interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve.
Tightening supply-demand pattern
In order to avoid oversupply of crude oil,OPEC+extended its voluntary production reduction measures until the end of the second quarter of this year in March 2024,with a nominal total reduction of 2.2 million barrels per day according to statements from several member countries.Saudi Arabia announced that the voluntary daily production reduction of 1 million barrels,which will be implemented from July 2023,will be extended until the end of June 2024.After the extension of the production reduction measures,Saudi Arabia’s daily oil production will be around 9 million barrels.Afterwards,these additional production reduction measures will gradually be adjusted according to market conditions.
The latest survey data shows that OPEC crude oil production remained at 26.81 million barrels per day in April,a slight decrease of 50000 barrels per day from March,and the supply side is still in a tight situation.In addition to the strong determination of OPEC+on the crude oil supply side to support oil prices,the demand side needs to pay attention to whether there will be an improvement in the demand for refined oil products in the northern hemisphere in the second quarter.
Recently,the three major global energy institutions EIA,OPEC,and IEA have expressed optimism about the prospects of the crude oil market,which has played an important role in improving market sentiment.After the end of May in the second quarter,the maintenance period for refinery facilities in the northern hemisphere has ended,and the peak season for gasoline consumption is gradually approaching.The demand for crude oil is expected to steadily recover,and the driving force for the upward trend of oil prices is increasing.The end of the crude oil accumulation cycle helps to strengthen the pattern of tight supply and demand in the oil market.
Market’s enthusiasm for long trading has declined
After the geopolitical expectations in the Middle East were digested,the early long funds in the crude oil market began to profit,and the enthusiasm for the oil market to long decreased.As of April 30th,the average non commercial net long position of WTI crude oil remained at 265461 sheets,an increase of 8440 sheets from the March average(257021 sheets).At the same time,the net long position of Brent crude oil futures remained at 310692 sheets,an increase of 51498 sheets from the March average of 259194 sheets,to 19.87%.However,overall,both the net long positions in the WTI crude oil futures market and the Brent crude oil futures market show signs of slowing growth.
Overall,after digesting the bearish impact of the delayed Fed rate cut,the macro impact has weakened,and the dominant logic of the crude oil market has returned to fundamentals.Due to the seasonal peak season of OPEC+production control combined with crude oil consumption,the supply and demand structure of the oil market is expected to further improve in the second quarter.It is expected that there is limited space for domestic and international oil prices to continue to decline in the future.