中文
At present,the 618 shopping festival has already started ahead of schedule,and the polyester market has already welcomed its own 618.The reporter learned that in mid to late May,the downstream of the polyester market entered a”buy buy buy”mode.However,with the end of the promotional activities for polyester filament,how long can the production reduction and price protection actions of polyester enterprises continue?Worth attention.
Looking back at this round of”buy buy”phenomenon,it occurred from May 18th to 19th,when some domestic polyester factories launched discount promotions,coupled with a rebound in raw material prices such as PX and PTA,leading weaving enterprises to choose to replenish inventory in large quantities,resulting in a hot scene for polyester factories.The reporter learned that after the event started,the average production and sales rate of mainstream large factories exceeded 200%.On May 20th,the average production and sales rate of the polyester market rose to around 450%,and some factories even reached 800%,equivalent to selling nearly 10 days of inventory in one day.In this round of restocking,downstream factories usually have more stock in 1 month,some in 3 months,and some in 10 or half a month.
The reporter received feedback from the market:”This operation not only allowed the polyester factory to sell a large amount of polyester filament smoothly,but also alleviated inventory pressure.Weaving enterprises also supplemented raw material inventory with favorable prices,solving the urgent needs of the industry.”
“Before this year,market participants generally expected that the net new production capacity of polyester filament would be low in 2024,and were optimistic about the future recovery of polyester filament benefits.However,the polyester industry continued to decline in efficiency during the traditional peak season from March to April,and the POY industry’s loss margin even expanded to 300-400 yuan/ton.”Zhang Xiaozhen,Chief Analyst of Guangfa Futures Nenghua,stated that after being put into production in 2023,the production capacity base of polyester filament is relatively large in 2024,and the operating load of polyester filament continues to be too high.Among them,the operating load of direct spinning filament increased to a high level of over 90%in early March,and continued to increase thereafter.As of mid to late April,its operating load has reached over 94%.
“Although the operation of downstream terminal texturing,weaving,and printing and dyeing shows that they are all at a relatively high level over the years,providing strong support for the demand for polyester filament,the increase in demand is limited.In addition,it should be noted that the cumulative export volume of polyester filament from January to April decreased by 7.81%compared to the same period last year.”Zhang Xiaozhen said that the export of polyester filament is under pressure.On the one hand,the continuous surge in shipping costs has significantly damaged the order taking situation and profits of export enterprises;On the other hand,it is affected by disturbance factors such as BIS certification and overseas new production capacity deployment.
As is well known,high production capacity means high output,and in the event of lower than expected demand,it can lead to high inventory levels in enterprises.The reporter learned from market insiders that since March,the high inventory of polyester filament has been difficult to effectively eliminate,and the price center has been continuously falling in the process of promotion time and time again.In the middle of the year,the price has dropped to the low point of the year,close to a two-year low.In addition,due to the influence of upstream raw materials PX and PTA,polyester enterprises find it difficult to reduce costs on the cost side,and the processing fees for polyester filament are greatly compressed.However,under high inventory and low profits,leading polyester filament enterprises have begun to choose to reduce production.Since May,several major polyester factories have carried out multiple rounds of production reduction,promotion,and price protection actions.
“Due to the high inventory and poor performance of the polyester industry,two sets of polyester filament plants in Xiaoshan area began to reduce their load after being shut down due to boiler renovation in May.”Liu Siqi,an analyst at Zijin Tianfeng Futures,said that mainstream polyester factories in Tongxiang and Jiangsu followed suit and planned to add a 10%reduction in shutdown to reduce operating load.Afterwards,the polyester factory played a”promotional card”again,and downstream began to concentrate on stocking,resulting in a significant decline in the inventory of polyester filament.
“With the start of downstream stocking,polyester inventory has declined and polyester profits have been repaired,but it cannot improve the weak situation of polyester.This is mainly because the improvement of downstream demand is limited,and profits are concentrated on the cost side,making it difficult to improve polyester profits in the short term.”Xie Wen,the leader of the Chemical Oil Group of Zhongda Futures in China,believes that price reduction promotions are only temporary and the probability of normalization is small.
Similarly,in Zhang Xiaozhen’s view,although the inventory of polyester filament has been successfully transferred downstream through price reduction and promotion,downstream factories currently have high stock of raw materials,and terminal demand is gradually entering the off-season.Coupled with factors such as continuous increase in shipping costs and the deployment of new overseas production capacity,the export of polyester filament is still under pressure.
It should be noted that in order to alleviate inventory pressure,polyester enterprises were forced to launch a”production reduction wave”in early May.Xie Wen told reporters,”In early May,the polyester end production reduction involved categories such as filament chips,bottle chips,short fibers,and long fibers,and the overall operating rate will decline.Among them,Hengyi Polymer and Rongsheng Petrochemical reduced the production capacity of filament chips by 1.6 million tons,and China Resources Denggao involved the shutdown of bottle chip production capacity by 600000 tons.In mid May,major filament factories successively implemented production reductions,involving a production capacity of 750000 tons,but partial maintenance and production reduction of short fiber devices resumed.In late May,some shutdown devices resumed,and some short fiber devices adjusted their operating loads,while polyester operating loads were moderately adjusted.”
What is the current operating load of the polyester industry?According to Pang Chunyan,Chief Analyst of CITIC Anxin Futures Chemical,on May 10th,the industry’s operating load rate decreased from over 93%to 89.3%,and then stabilized after dropping to 88.5%in the following week.From the trend of the same period over the years,the current operating load is at a relatively low level in the past five years,only higher than the same period in 2022.
Given the easing of short-term inventory pressure on polyester filament,Zhang Xiaozhen believes that the early production reduction plan of the polyester filament factory is likely not implemented properly,and the short-term load may remain stable at the current level.
“Inventory depletion is beneficial for stabilizing polyester factory production.Currently,the expectation of further production reduction in the polyester industry is weakened,and after centralized stocking in mid to late May downstream,inventory consumption may be the main focus in mid to early June.”Pang Chunyan believes that upstream polyester filament may once again enter the accumulation cycle,and in the future,attention needs to be paid to whether polyester factories will take proactive measures to control the accumulation rhythm once inventory returns to a relatively high level.”In the short term,there is not much inventory pressure in polyester factories,and the shipment volume has improved.It is expected to maintain the policy of reducing production and maintaining prices.The benefits of polyester are expected to improve in the future,but the ultimate effect depends on the downstream cost transfer.”Liu Siqi said that the current downstream demand performance is average,and after raw material procurement rises back to a neutral or above level,market procurement enthusiasm decreases.After the inventory pressure in polyester factories rebounds again,the price protection policy may loosen.