中文
In recent years,the export volume of Guinea’s bauxite has grown rapidly,especially the proportion of exports to China in its total bauxite export volume continues to rise.Data shows that in 2023,China’s imports of bauxite from Guinea reached 99.13 million tons,exceeding the amount imported from Australia.Due to the disruptions caused by explosions and strikes at Guinea’s oil and gas storage facilities,coupled with the onset of the rainy season,Guinea’s bauxite exports will be significantly disrupted in 2024.In addition,according to Bloomberg,Emirates Global Aluminum announced that its bauxite exports have been suspended by Guinea Customs,and its subsidiary Guinea Alumina Company has a bauxite production capacity of 12 million tons per year,further exacerbating the tight situation of overseas bauxite supply.
From January to August,China’s imports of bauxite from overseas increased by 11.7%year-on-year,which is slightly lower than the 16.9%and 12.7%in 2022 and 2023.The average unit price of bauxite imports has risen sharply due to temporary tight overseas supply.As of October 15th,the average unit price of trihydrate bauxite(45%AL,3%Si)imported from Guinea has risen to$78 per dry ton,compared to only$67 per dry ton in the same period last year,with a staggering increase of 16.4%.
The tight supply and skyrocketing prices of bauxite are transmitting to alumina.According to data released by the International Aluminum Association(IAI),global alumina production slowed down to a year-on-year growth rate of 2.1%from January to August due to the temporary tight supply of bauxite.China’s alumina production decreased in the first half of the year,but the pace of resuming production accelerated in the second half.According to the National Bureau of Statistics,from January to August,China’s alumina production increased by 2.4%year-on-year,reaching 55.88 million tons.
From January to August,China’s electrolytic aluminum production was 28.909 million tons.Excluding 20%of electrolytic aluminum produced from recycled aluminum,the electrolytic aluminum produced from alumina was approximately 23.127 million tons.According to the calculation that producing 1 ton of electrolytic aluminum requires 2 tons of alumina,57.818 million tons of alumina will be consumed.At the same time,from January to August,the import of alumina reached 1.262 million tons,which means that the domestic supply of alumina is about 56.042 million tons,which cannot meet the consumption of alumina from electrolytic aluminum production during the same period,resulting in a shortage of domestic alumina supply.In addition,in the second quarter,Alcoa shut down an alumina plant located in Australia,involving the withdrawal of 2.2 million tons of production capacity,and overseas alumina supply tightened simultaneously.
From a cost perspective,in September,the price of alumina maintained a strong upward trend,and after the National Day holiday,the spot price of alumina broke through the historical high to 4425 yuan/ton.The cost of alumina in the production process of electrolytic aluminum is rapidly increasing.At the same time,electricity prices remain relatively stable.Taking into account both self provided electricity and grid electricity,the weighted average electricity price in September was 0.417 yuan/kWh,unchanged from the previous month.Although anode prices continue to decline,the proportion of alumina cost in the production cost of electrolytic aluminum has further increased,resulting in a significant increase in the overall production cost of electrolytic aluminum.According to calculations,in September,the weighted average full cost(including tax)of electrolytic aluminum in China was 17320 yuan/ton,a slight increase of 105 yuan/ton compared to the previous month.