中文
On November 30 local time, the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) held a video conference to discuss the scale of oil production reduction next year, but the meeting failed to reach a final decision on that day. The analysis suggests that novel coronavirus pneumonia impact on the world is weakening the global crude oil demand, and the possibility of maintaining the current production reduction is very great.
There is a broad consensus among OPEC member states that it is necessary to extend the existing production reduction measures for three months from January next year, provided that allies in the OPEC + alliance also support this move. According to Reuters, Saudi Arabia and other major oil producers support extending the current average daily production reduction of 7.7 million barrels to the first few months of next year, while Russia, Kazakhstan and other countries hope to gradually increase production next year. “The meeting is going hard,” the source said on November 30, “especially if Russia and Kazakhstan do not change their positions.”
Most of the participating countries agreed to extend the current production reduction to the first quarter of next year. However, due to the opposition of the United Arab Emirates and Kazakhstan, countries failed to reach a consensus. Previously, there have been disagreements within the alliance formed by OPEC and non OPEC oil producing countries. In mid November, OPEC member UAE revealed its unwillingness to fully comply with the production reduction agreement.
Abdel Mahmoud, the president of the general assembly of Algeria and Member States, has reached a consensus on the extension of the existing OPEC energy production mechanism in the next three months. The OPEC + informal meeting studied this option on November 29. ‘it’s dangerous for the oil market if OPEC + doesn’t continue the production reduction efforts started seven months ago,’ Mr. artar said.
Phil Flynn, a senior market analyst at the US price futures group, said on November 30 that although it was an easy decision for OPEC + to extend its current production reduction efforts from January 1 next year for three months, some oil producing countries seem to be controlled by greed, egoism and shortsightedness.
According to the analysis, if OPEC is still deadlocked in the follow-up formal meeting, it means that from January 2021, member states can reduce production according to the new scale, which means that the crude oil market will face the impact of new supply of about 2 million barrels / day, which accounts for about 2% of global crude oil consumption.
The recent novel coronavirus pneumonia vaccine test results raised hopes for economic recovery and boosted fuel demand rise. In November, oil prices continued to rise, and light crude oil and London Brent crude rose more than 25% in November, the biggest monthly increase since May.
Global deployment of the vaccine will take time, and its effect may begin to show in the second half of 2021.
The impact of the epidemic on the oil industry is huge, and its serious impact is likely to continue in the next few years. The global economy is still in deep recession and is expected to shrink by 4.3% in 2020. Affected by the second wave of the epidemic and the corresponding blockade measures, global oil demand is expected to decline by about 9.8 million barrels / day in 2020. The vaccine will play a significant role in the second half of 2021. The global economy is expected to grow by 4.4% in 2021, and global oil demand will increase by 6.1 million barrels / day.
In its monthly market report released last month, OPEC lowered its global oil demand forecast for 2021. It is expected that the average daily crude oil demand in 2021 will increase by 6.2 million barrels on a year-on-year basis, a decrease of 300000 barrels compared with the October forecast, and a forecast of 7 million barrels in July this year. OPEC believes that the expected reduction mainly takes into account the adverse impact of the world economic outlook. “With the continued rise in infection cases in the United States and Europe in October, forcing governments to re introduce some restrictive measures, various energy needs, including transportation fuel, are believed to be the first to suffer.” According to the report.
New York Mercantile Exchange crude oil futures contract designated delivery point Cushing’s inventory again close to historical high. According to the analysis, if OPEC + starts to increase production as planned next year, the decline of global oil inventories will stop.