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Europe is experiencing cold weather,leading to an increase in heating demand and forcing natural gas reserves to be depleted at the fastest rate in seven years.Although this will not cause a natural gas shortage in Europe,it is enough to raise concerns in the market.
According to data from European natural gas infrastructure,the current natural gas storage capacity in Europe is only over 70%,compared to about 86%a year ago during the same period,a decrease of 25 percentage points from last year’s peak.
Samantha Dart,head of natural gas research at Goldman Sachs,is concerned that the lower the EU gas storage level at the end of March,the more difficult it will be for the region to replenish its inventory before next winter,especially with current forecast temperatures below average.
But concerns about next year cannot prevent the continuous decline of spot market prices.On Monday,European natural gas futures fell to 47.9 euros per megawatt hour,down about 5%from last week’s peak.
Summer is the highlight
Starting this year,Russia will no longer be able to export pipeline natural gas to Europe through the Ukrainian pipeline.Although its transit supply of natural gas only accounts for 5%of the EU’s total imports,market analysis suggests that Austria,Hungary,and Slovakia will still be severely affected.
Fortunately,Slovakia has found alternative supplies,and Azerbaijan’s state-owned oil company SOCAR has started supplying natural gas to SPP,Slovakia’s largest state-owned energy operator.
However,due to the EU’s heavy reliance on the supply of liquefied natural gas,this may mean that it will face higher price risks and shortage threats.
Starting this week,Europe will experience a significant cooling trend,with most of its northwestern regions already cooling down.This means that heating gas consumption will further increase,potentially fueling concerns about gas usage.
In addition,top liquefied natural gas suppliers in the region have also experienced unexpected shutdowns.The Hamerfest natural gas plant in Norway has suspended operations due to compressor failure and is expected to resume supply on January 9th.
Various concerns have prompted analysts to be optimistic about the future of natural gas.Florence Schmit,European energy strategist at Rabobank,believes that the current price decline may be a technical reversal after the recent rise.She stated that market sentiment remains bullish,but the market is adapting to the’new normal’.
Economists also warn that the decline in natural gas inventories in Europe this winter may lead to prices remaining high this summer,with EU countries typically beginning to replenish their inventories in spring and summer.