中文
The current price of methanol dropped significantly in October. At present, the positive factors of methanol industry are gradually emerging, and the future market is expected to be warmer.
Import profit fell rapidly
At the beginning of October, the methanol import profit once surged above 200 yuan / ton, and the methanol import volume rose under the stimulation of high profit. While meeting the demand of coastal ports, imported methanol once reversed the original trade flow from inland to coastal areas and supplied to southern Shandong and other places. Since then, coastal port prices have fallen rapidly, and import profits have been compressed to the same period of previous years. After the import profit is close to the same period level of previous years, the methanol import volume has dropped significantly, the impact on the domestic methanol supply and demand pattern will be significantly weakened, and the downward pressure on the price caused by the excessive methanol supply volume in the coastal areas will be significantly reduced.
As the heating season approaches, natural gas prices continue to rise. With the development of economy, the improvement of people’s livelihood and the gradual improvement of environmental awareness, the domestic demand for natural gas has maintained a double-digit rise in recent years. Under the influence of the expected increase in winter heating demand in the northern region, the domestic natural gas price rose rapidly in late September when it reached a new low stage; the international natural gas price recovered steadily in early October, and the cumulative increase of the US natural gas index exceeded 10%, following the domestic trend.
In the past, with the price rising in the inland area, the operating rate in the inland area quickly recovered to the same level of the previous year, and the capacity of the coal to methanol plant in the later stage may be limited. The rising price of natural gas and the seasonal arrangement of heating and gas supply for people’s livelihood in winter will further tighten the supply and demand of methanol in inland areas.
In the later stage, the operating rate of natural gas methanol plants such as Boyuan will further fall, driving the inland supply to decline.
The rising international natural gas price will raise the production cost of foreign countries, compress the profit of natural gas methanol plant, increase the import cost of foreign countries to East China ports, and further reduce the import volume in the later period.
Methanol demand can be divided into traditional downstream and emerging downstream. The operation rate of the traditional downstream DME plant is gradually rising, and the operation rate of the acetic acid plant remains high. At present, the profit of methanol to olefin has reached a new high since 2014. In October, the methanol to olefin unit was partially overhauled, and now it is basically back to operation. With the normal operation of new methanol to olefin units such as Baofeng energy phase II, the demand for methanol will be released stably.
Port inventory inflection point confirmed
As of October 31, East China’s port inventory was 794200 tons, down 53600 tons from the previous week, down 166800 tons or 17.36% from the annual high of 961000 tons on September 19; South China’s port inventory was 132300 tons, similar to East China’s, down 34200 tons or 21.85% from September 19. Inventory is a comprehensive reflection of supply and demand. Previously, the unilateral downward trend of methanol price was mainly due to the supply pressure brought by high inventory in the port. After the continuous decline of inventory, the pressure of high inventory on price will gradually reduce, and the vulnerable pattern of port price will gradually change. Port inventory in a period of too fast decline may even become the starting point of a new round of market.
To sum up, under the favorable factors such as the decline of import profit, seasonal contraction of supply and continuous decline of port inventory, methanol’s recent stable rebound trend is gradually forming. It is suggested that the downstream demand enterprises should choose the opportunity to buy the spot or set up a buying hedging position corresponding to the demand.