中文
On July 26th,the commodity team of China International Capital Corporation(CICC)announced that it is expected that global iron ore will maintain a slight surplus in the second half of 2024.On the one hand,the growth of global imports and demand is relatively limited;On the other hand,the production and ramp up of newly launched projects in overseas mines in recent years will continue to support the supply level.
From the supply side,according to statistics from China International Capital Corporation,the total production of the four major mines(Rio Tinto,BHP Billiton,Forbes River,and Vale)in the second quarter reached 207 million tons,a year-on-year increase of 2.5%and a month on month increase of 9.9%,making it the highest production in the same period in history.
Among them,Vale and BHP have maintained a relatively strong shipping momentum since the beginning of this year,and the surge of the Ford River at the end of the fiscal year is also very obvious,while Rio Tinto’s production is relatively weak,”commented CICC.
After entering the third quarter,it is expected that the mining impulse will come to an end,and the global iron ore transportation volume will decline,but it will still maintain year-on-year growth.With the downward adjustment of iron ore prices and high port inventories,the pace of China’s iron ore imports in the third quarter may slow down to some extent.
From the demand side,CICC believes that there is limited room for substantial improvement in downstream domestic demand in the second half of 2024 and even 2025.As for the third quarter of 2024,considering the support of manufacturing production prosperity and steel export resilience,CICC believes that China’s iron and steel production may remain stable,with room for a 2.5%month on month growth compared to the second quarter.
Based on the updated cost curve and expected demand level,CICC estimates that the reasonable equilibrium price for iron ore in the second half of 2024 should be between$95/ton and$100/ton.
The research team of CICC Commodities believes that although the price of iron ore is influenced by various factors such as financial attributes and macro expectations,the long-term equilibrium price level of iron ore is still determined by both the supply and demand curves.