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OPEC calls for increased investment,and the oil industry still needs to invest$14 trillion,or an average of approximately$610 billion per year.
Despite global efforts to shift towards clean energy,OPEC believes that the world will still rely on oil for a long time.
In the 2023 World Oil Outlook released on October 9th,OPEC pointed out that global oil consumption will increase by 16%in the next 20 years and reach 116 million barrels per day in 2045,which is approximately 6 million barrels higher than previous predictions.
OPEC believes that road transportation,petrochemicals,and aviation will drive the growth of oil consumption,among which Asian countries will be the main driving force for the growth of oil demand.
The organization has also raised its medium-term demand forecast until 2028,citing strong demand this year despite economic headwinds such as interest rate hikes:
Despite the outlook,it has been proven that the demand for oil in 2023 is resilient.
OPEC stated that global demand will reach 110.2 million barrels per day in 2028,up from 102 million barrels per day in 2023.The agency predicts that oil usage will reach 109 million barrels per day in 2027,higher than the estimated 106.9 million barrels per day in 2022.
When the COVID-19 hit global oil demand in 2020,OPEC lowered its oil demand forecast and believed that oil consumption would eventually slow down after years of growth.
With the rebound in oil usage,OPEC has once again raised its forecast.
In a report released in 2022,the organization predicted that global oil demand will stabilize after 2035,but the latest outlook shows that oil usage will increase by another 1.6 million barrels per day in the last 10 years of the forecast period.
However,after the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic,the scale of global fossil fuel investment has also declined significantly,and has decreased permanently.
Therefore,OPEC calls for increased investment in oil.The organization believes that to achieve its long-term oil demand forecast,the oil industry needs to invest$14 trillion,or an average of approximately$610 billion per year.
OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais called for increased investment in oil development,stating that providing these investments is”crucial”and that it is beneficial for both producers and consumers:
The call to stop investing in new oil projects is wrong and may lead to energy and economic chaos.
Due to a more detailed understanding of costs and the scale of energy challenges,policies and goals for other energy sources are faltering,and therefore the world should see resistance to the view of fossil fuels.
History is filled with countless turbulent examples,which should serve as a warning of what happens when policymakers fail to recognize the complexity of energy interweaving.
The OPEC perspective contrasts sharply with the predictions of the International Energy Agency(IEA).
The IEA stated last month that the world is currently at the”beginning of the end”of the fossil fuel era.Due to the rapid growth of renewable energy and the popularity of electric vehicles,the consumption of the three major fossil fuels will decrease in the next decade.
The IEA believes that as countries shift towards renewable energy and electric vehicles,the demand for fossil fuels will stabilize by the end of this decade.The report states that if governments want to achieve net zero emissions targets and limit temperature increases to within 1.5 degrees Celsius,they must immediately stop investing in new oil projects.
OPEC believes that despite the rapid growth of electric vehicles,vehicles powered by internal gas will still account for the majority in the future.The organization predicts that by 2045,there will be 2.6 billion gasoline powered vehicles on global roads,an additional 1 billion vehicles compared to 2022.