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A faster recovery in global oil demand and a sharp decline in global oil production are bringing the market closer to equilibrium than predicted a month ago.
Brent crude oil futures closed at $39.99/barrel on June 4, 2020, up $13.55/barrel from May 1, 2020. Over the same period, West Texas Intermediate crude oil (WTI) futures for delivery in Cushing, Oklahoma, rose $17.63 per barrel to close at $37.41 on June 4.
Several factors may have supported crude oil prices. Preliminary oil consumption data and additional efforts by major oil producers show that the oversupply in the global oil market is not as severe as the EIA predicted in the may steo. As the United States and OECD member countries began to reopen from the blockade, early indicators of oil consumption showed that oil consumption increased from the low level in April.
The EIA estimates that the average global consumption of oil and other liquid fuels in May was 82.9 million barrels per day, an increase of 3.7 million barrels per day over April’s consumption and 2.9 million barrels per day more than the May sto forecast.
In addition, global oil production has been declining due to voluntary production reduction of OPEC + member countries and rapid decline of us tight oil production.
EIA estimates for global liquid fuel supply in May are 500000 BPD lower than last month’s steo forecast. In addition to OPEC + initial production cuts totalling 9.7 million barrels per day, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates announced additional production cuts of about 1.2 million barrels per day in June 2020, based on their initial commitments. Partly on the basis of these cuts, the EIA has cut its global oil and liquid supply forecast for June by 2.2 million barrels per day from last month.
The EIA completed its forecast by June 6, when OPEC + announced that it would extend production cuts from May and June to July. Prior to the decision, negotiations on expanding production management contributed to the rise in crude oil prices. The move did not reflect an extension of the May and June cuts.
EIA currently forecasts that the average monthly Brent crude oil price will reach 37 USD / barrel in the second half of 2020, and will rise to 48 USD / barrel in 2021.
The forecast for the rise in crude oil prices reflects the expected decline in global oil inventories from the second half of 2020 to 2021. The EIA expects high inventory levels and idle crude oil production capacity in the coming months to limit price pressures, which will increase as inventories fall to 2021.