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With the development of local renewable energy far behind expectations,India has once again chosen to increase its coal electricity consumption,and the industry generally expects the country’s greenhouse gas emissions to reach new highs.
Recently,the Indian government announced an extension of the time limit for mixed use of imported coal,requiring all coal-fired power plants to continue importing coal until March next year,while ensuring local power supply and increasing coal inventory levels.With the unexpected impact of extreme dry weather,India’s electricity demand reached its peak in August this year.With the development of domestic renewable energy far behind expectations,India has once again chosen to increase its coal electricity consumption.The industry generally expects the country’s greenhouse gas emissions to reach new highs.
Increase efforts in coal-fired power generation
According to Reuters reports,in August of this year,India experienced a century old rare extreme drought weather,with continuous high temperatures causing a surge in air conditioning usage.At the same time,it pushed up the level of electricity used for farmland irrigation,coupled with intermittent characteristics of renewable energy power generation.India’s electricity demand has skyrocketed,with a month on month increase of over 10%.From the perspective of supply,Reuters data shows that in August this year,India’s electricity generation reached 162.7 billion kilowatt hours,breaking a new record.However,due to extreme drought weather,India’s hydropower output level continues to decline,with extremely low rainfall resulting in nearly 14.8%of hydropower output,lower than the previous average level of 18%.During the same period,renewable energy electricity,mainly wind and photovoltaic,also experienced significant fluctuations,with the proportion of wind and solar power output decreasing from around 15%in the previous period to 9%.
Affected by this,coal-fired power has become the preferred choice for India’s electricity supply guarantee.In August of this year,coal-fired power accounted for 66.7%of India’s electricity supply,setting a new record for the same period in nearly six years.From January to August this year,the proportion of coal-fired power in India’s electricity supply increased to 74.2%,higher than 72.9%in the same period last year,showing an upward trend for three consecutive years.In the latest report,the Indian power sector pointed out that although solar power generation can reduce the power supply gap during the day,there is a shortage of nighttime supply,and coal-fired power generation bears the entire nighttime power supply.
Despite this,India has still not been able to make up for its electricity shortage.In August of this year,India experienced its worst electricity shortage since April 2022.According to data from the Indian power grid,on August 31st,the peak electricity demand in India reached 243.9 gigawatts,far exceeding the available capacity by 7.3 gigawatts.
Extend the time limit for coal imports
To meet electricity demand,the Indian government is still working to expand the import of coal.Reuters reported that the Indian government requires coal-fired power plants to mix imported coal at a rate of 4%for power generation and maintain maximum capacity for power supply.According to previous plans,the Indian government’s requirement for imported coal hybrid power generation is expected to terminate by the end of this month.However,due to the continuous increase in electricity demand,the gap between electricity supply and demand remains unabated.The Indian government has stated that it will continue the requirement until March next year.Industry analysis points out that this move is precisely to safeguard India’s domestic coal inventory.
It is understood that in the past two years,the Indian government has requested to strengthen its energy self-sufficiency capacity.In the first four months of this fiscal year,the coal production of Indian state-owned coal companies increased by 10.7%year-on-year,while the total amount of imported coal from coal-fired power plants decreased by 24%year-on-year.But now,facing the constantly expanding power shortage,India has to increase its coal import efforts.Data shows that by the end of August this year,the coal inventory of coal-fired power plants in India could only be maintained for 11 days,which is 3 days less than the peak electricity consumption in June of previous years.
In addition to increasing coal-fired power generation,the Indian government is also seeking to increase natural gas supply.Reuters reported that in the first week of September,the Indian government issued a document stating that it had requested utility companies to accelerate the completion of power plant maintenance work.At the same time,natural gas power plants that have signed power purchase agreements with the government must be put into use during periods of high demand and reduced solar power generation,and every effort should be made to restore power plants that were previously forced to shut down to avoid more serious power outages.
Carbon emissions may continue to rise
In this situation,the industry generally estimates that India’s energy sector’s carbon emissions will remain high.According to the latest statistics from global energy think tank Ember,in 2022,India’s per capita carbon emissions increased by 29%compared to 2015,far higher than the average level of G20 member countries.
In the past two years,although the Indian government has expressed strong support for the development of renewable energy,the actual growth rate of renewable energy installation has fallen far short of expectations.Every year,the new installed capacity of wind and solar power needs to double or more to meet the established development goals.More data shows that as of August this year,India’s renewable energy generation has only increased by 16 billion kilowatt hours,accounting for less than 15%of the total increase in power generation.
In this situation,the Indian government’s attitude towards coal is full of”contradictions”.On the one hand,the Indian government hopes to accelerate energy transformation and increase the installed capacity of renewable energy generation.In June of this year,the Indian government also proposed for the first time a plan to”suspend the addition of new coal-fired power units within 5 years”.On the other hand,India’s energy system still heavily relies on coal.Bloomberg quoted the Indian Electricity Minister as saying that India will still build new coal-fired power generation projects to meet growing electricity demand.Currently,the installed capacity of coal-fired power generation is about 27 million kilowatts,and there are also about 24 million kilowatts of coal-fired power generation projects in the early planning stage.In addition,in January of this year,the Indian Ministry of Energy requested power generation companies not to phase out coal-fired power plants before 2030.In April of this year,India’s state-owned power company NTPC announced that it would increase its coal-fired power generation capacity to ensure electricity supply.
Reuters pointed out that in the past decade,the limited growth rate of coal power generation capacity,lack of energy storage technology,and low wind and solar power generation have all made it challenging for India to ensure electricity supply.