中文
With the arrival of the peak consumption season of”Golden September and Silver October”,coupled with the impact of autumn maintenance and winter gas restrictions,the supply and demand pattern is expected to improve.At that time,the MA2501 contract may gradually rise,and it is recommended to try buying on dips.
The methanol futures price may show a pattern of near weak and far strong in the second half of this year,with short-term prices mainly under pressure and weak operation,and the center of gravity of medium and long-term prices may gradually rise.
In the first half of this year,coal prices were relatively low compared to the same period last year.Currently,the peak season for coal downstream destocking has not yet begun,and both enterprise and port inventories are at a high level.The third quarter coincides with a peak in electricity consumption,and demand is expected to rise.However,considering that coal supply is still relatively loose and the speed of destocking is relatively slow,the possibility of a significant rebound in coal prices is unlikely under the pressure of high inventory levels.Prices may remain weakly stable,and the cost side support for coal chemical industry is expected to remain weak.In the long run,after the peak season,the daily consumption of power plants will fall in November,and the downward pressure on coal prices still exists.Winter heating demand may form a certain support,and it is expected that coal prices will show seasonal fluctuations and there will be no obvious upward trend.
Since 2024,the operating rate and output of domestic methanol plants have shown a trend of rising and falling.The significant recovery of coal production profits has stimulated construction,and the seasonal maintenance efforts are not as strong as in previous years.After the maintenance of multiple integrated devices in June,construction has significantly declined.At present,in terms of new production capacity,it is expected that the domestic methanol production capacity will increase by 10.7 million tons in 2024.The actual increase in the first half of the year is relatively limited,and there is no definite time for the production of facilities in the second half of the year.Except for the Baofeng and Zhongtai facilities in Ningxia and Xinjiang,there is not much new production capacity for other production facilities,and some of them have supporting downstream facilities.It is expected that the impact of new production capacity will be limited.
Due to the large number of existing facilities in China,the focus should still be on the level of enterprise operation.In the second half of the year,there is a concentrated expectation for the restart of domestic maintenance equipment,while coal prices continue to be weak,and coal production profits may still remain at a high level.Therefore,it is expected that the methanol operating rate will rebound in the third quarter,and domestic supply pressure will remain at a high level.However,in the fourth quarter,attention still needs to be paid to the specific situation of domestic autumn inspections.In the long run,domestic supply will show a pattern of first strength and then weakness.
In terms of overseas imports,due to the frequent internal and external maintenance of Iranian and non Iranian facilities,imports in the first half of the year have consistently fallen short of expectations.Recently,the overall international methanol production has entered a recovery process,while Malaysia’s 1.75 million tons and the United States’1.8 million tons of new production capacity have been released.The import increment may gradually realize after August,and the domestic market is likely to face a high impact of import volume in the short term.In the long run,Iran plans to release 1.65 million tons of production capacity in the fourth quarter,but it is still necessary to consider the impact of extreme weather on logistics and ports,as well as the concentrated shutdown of Iran’s methanol production facilities.At that time,attention should be paid to whether overseas supply is stable or declining.
In the first half of this year,the overall trend of methanol to olefin production showed a high-level decline.Since May,with the intensification of losses in methanol to olefin production,the negative feedback effect has been evident.Recently,the price of methanol has fallen,and the profit of olefin production has been repaired,but it is still at a loss level,which cannot provide sufficient driving force for olefin production enterprises to restart or increase their burden.At the same time,there are still plans for the shutdown and maintenance of olefin plants in Nanjing Chengzhi,Ningxia Baofeng and other enterprises in the future.Therefore,it is expected that the support of downstream demand for methanol market will be limited.In the traditional downstream sector,the construction started in the first half of the year fluctuated widely,and the overall performance was basically the same as the same period in previous years.Considering the impact of factors such as rising temperatures in the third quarter and weak terminal consumption,July and August are traditionally the seasonal off-season in downstream areas,and demand is difficult to increase.We will pay attention to the recovery of the”Golden September and Silver October”peak season in the future.In the long run,the demand side may show a pattern of weak first and then strong.
In terms of port inventory,there was a continuous destocking in the second quarter.After the olefin plant was shut down in mid May to reduce its negative load,port inventory bottomed out and rebounded.In recent weeks,it has continued to climb to the high point of the same period in previous years.In the short term,it is expected that import arrivals will gradually rebound,and the maintenance plan for port olefin units will not be reduced.The centralized return time is relatively late.Against the backdrop of increasing import pressure and poor demand follow-up,it is expected that port inventory may continue to accumulate in the future.In terms of enterprise inventory,it surged and fell back in the first half of the year,and is currently in a neutral low position,with little inventory pressure.It is expected that the domestic methanol supply will recover in the third quarter,coupled with the seasonal off-season downstream,and the pressure on production enterprises to accumulate inventory may gradually emerge.However,after entering the fourth quarter,the supply and demand pattern will become tighter,and it is not ruled out that there will be a destocking support market.
For the MA2409 contract,the negative driving factors are relatively dense,the cost support is weak,the domestic and international supply is increasing,and the demand remains weak.It is expected that the price center of gravity may shift downwards,and the weak pattern will continue in the short term.It is recommended to hold the MA2409 contract short and light positions.For the MA2501 contract,with the arrival of the”golden September and silver October”,coupled with the impact of autumn maintenance and winter gas restrictions,the supply and demand pattern is expected to improve.At that time,the MA2501 contract may gradually rise,and it is recommended to try buying on dips.In terms of the 9-1 price difference,the low demand season in June and July put pressure on the near end prices,leading to a decrease in the monthly difference.From the current supply-demand structure,there is strong supply and weak demand in the near end,and 9-1 can still continue to pay attention to the opportunity for reversal under the expectation of accumulated inventory.However,time is running out,and the 9-1 price difference may gradually rebound.