中文
On February 24th,the spot reference price of CCTD Bohai Rim thermal coal was 724 yuan/ton,a decrease of 5 yuan/ton on a daily basis and 22 yuan/ton on a weekly basis,reaching the lowest point in nearly 4 years.Industry experts believe that due to the current loose supply,there is still room for coal prices to decline in the short term.In the future,with increased infrastructure construction and rising operating rates,the demand for non electric coal may further increase.
From the demand side,the report from the China Electricity Council shows that as of February 14th,the cumulative power generation of coal-fired power plants included in the statistics for this month has decreased by 2.3%year-on-year,and the cumulative power generation for this year has decreased by 13.9%year-on-year.The cumulative coal consumption of coal-fired power plants has decreased by 1%year-on-year this month,and by 11%year-on-year this year.The coal inventory of coal-fired power plants is 7.1 million tons higher than the same period last year,and the available days of inventory have increased by 4.7 days compared to the same period last year.
In addition,the social inventory of coal is also constantly increasing.According to a report from Yimei Research Institute,as of February 21,the total inventory of several major ports around the Bohai Sea was 29.61 million tons,an increase of 1.17 million tons compared to the previous month.The coal transportation volume on the Daqin Line continues to increase,with an average daily volume of 1.08 million tons from February 14th to 21st.
Wang Chuang,a researcher at Yimei Research Institute,believes that the overall social inventory is high and the inventory in northern ports continues to increase,making it difficult for coal prices to be driven up.The market sentiment is weak,and coal prices will continue to decline.With the recent release of market sentiment and the expansion of coal price decline,it is expected that prices will stabilize slightly by the end of February.
From the perspective of the production area,the current demand is showing differentiation.Taking the coal variety with a calorific value of 4500 in our coal mine as an example,there are currently 1658 vehicles waiting in line to pull coal,which is a relatively high level.Calculated based on an average of 35 tons per vehicle,the daily demand is 58000 tons,and the sales volume is not wrong.”The head of coal transportation business at a large coal enterprise in Inner Mongolia said that the pace of coal production and sales is still good,and there is no sign of tightening supply in the production area.However,compared to low calorific value coal,the sales of high calorific value coal with a calorific value exceeding 5500 kcal are slightly lower,and the resumption pace of related coal mines after the Spring Festival is relatively slow.
Looking ahead to March to April,experts from the China Electricity Council predict that,as usual in previous years,the security inspection of coal mines in production areas will continue to be strong from the end of February to early March,and coal supply will slightly decrease in the short term.However,with the end of heating in most northern regions in mid March and an increase in the output of other power sources such as water and electricity,coal consumption will enter the traditional off-season.
According to a report by Zhuochuang Information,with loose coal supply and active destocking by power plants,it is expected that coal prices will continue to be under pressure and operate weakly.Han Yajuan,a thermal coal analyst at Shanghai Steel Union Coal and Coke Business Unit,believes that taking the 5500 kcal coal price at Qinhuangdao Port as an example,it is expected that the thermal coal price will fall to 700 yuan/ton and hit the bottom.
From the current price perspective,the coal mine has not yet reached the break even point,and the pace of coal mine production will not slow down in the short term,”said Yang Jie,Deputy Director of the Research Department of Yimei Research Institute.It is expected that this round of coal price decline may end in March or April.Subsequent prices may be driven by consumer demand such as the peak summer season.
Some industry insiders also suggest that increased investment in infrastructure and rising operating rates in the later stages may drive coal consumption in non electricity industries such as cement.Guosheng Securities believes that due to increased policy measures,it is highly likely that infrastructure(physical workload)represented by cement,asphalt,and excavators will improve by 2025.
According to statistics,since the beginning of the year,Shandong,Guangdong,Shanghai,Jiangsu and other places have released information on the concentrated construction of major projects,many of which involve transportation hub projects such as bridges,highways,and high-speed railway stations.Yang Jie believes that sustainable attention should be paid to the progress of major projects in the future.