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Shell’s scenario forecast released on Wednesday shows that global demand for liquefied natural gas(LNG)will significantly increase in the coming years,while natural gas demand may flatten out and oil demand may peak in the early 2030s.Shell simulated long-term energy security trends through three different scenarios,but emphasized that these predictions do not represent its strategy or business plan.
The report points out that the demand for liquefied natural gas will increase significantly in the short term,mainly due to projects being promoted in Qatar and the United States.By 2020,the global supply of liquefied natural gas is expected to reach approximately 550 million tons per year(MTPA).After 2030,there will be significant differences in the expected demand for liquefied natural gas under different scenarios.In the”surge”scenario,liquefied natural gas supply will continue to grow and reach 700 million tons per year after 2040;In the’Horizon’scenario,the demand for liquefied natural gas is expected to peak in the early 2030s.
In the most optimistic”surge”scenario,natural gas demand will grow until 2045;In the’Horizon’scenario,natural gas demand is expected to peak in the near future to achieve the net zero emissions target by 2050.Shell also pointed out that the electrification of road transportation is the main reason for the peak of oil demand no later than 2030.
The report states:”These scenarios suggest that primary energy demand in 2050 may be nearly a quarter higher than in 2024,depending on economic growth rates,energy efficiency improvements,and electrification rates.”Shell plans to release a outlook report later this year with a focus on liquefied natural gas.