中文
Since the beginning of the year,due to the geopolitical situation and domestic policies,the operating load of refineries has remained low,and the supply of asphalt raw materials has continued to tighten.Although the demand for asphalt is still in the seasonal off-season,the accumulation of spot goods is limited,and the absolute level of inventory is not high,which provides some support for the trend of asphalt.However,the decrease in costs has put significant pressure on oil prices,further affecting the asphalt market.
The supply of raw materials is tightening
After Trump took office,the uncertainty on the supply side of crude oil increased,while there were no obvious highlights on the demand side of crude oil.In early February,Trump announced that multiple tariff policies would take effect in March,which is expected to have an impact on the global trade environment.At the same time,the Russia Ukraine peace talks are gradually advancing,and the United States plans to relax sanctions against Russia.If the Russia-Ukraine conflict ends,it will bring negative effects to the oil market from the emotional and supply side.In addition,under pressure from Trump,OPEC+has stated that it will increase production as planned in April.In the short term,under the negative resonance,oil prices will maintain a weak pattern,which will suppress the cost of asphalt formation.
The raw materials for asphalt production are mainly heavy crude oil,mainly sourced from countries such as Venezuela,Iran,and Russia.Affected by the geopolitical situation,the supply of heavy oil in these countries is unstable,increasing the uncertainty of domestic asphalt raw material supply.Since the beginning of this year,the United States has launched a new round of sanctions against Russia and Iran,while also tightening sanctions against Venezuela,causing global heavy oil supply to tighten again.
In addition,domestic policies are also facing variables.In October 2024,Shandong plans to deduct the amount of products processed and produced using fuel oil,diluted asphalt,and naphtha as raw materials based on the proportion of taxable products.This adjustment will increase tax and fee costs by approximately 500 yuan/ton for local refining enterprises that use a large proportion of fuel oil(domestic and imported)and diluted asphalt as raw materials.If this policy is implemented,on the one hand,it will suppress the profit level of delayed coking units in local refineries,which may lead to production shutdowns or increased maintenance,thereby affecting the output of heavy products;On the other hand,domestic refining enterprises may reduce their demand for heavy raw materials such as fuel oil and diluted asphalt,and turn to high cost crude oil,resulting in a passive increase in asphalt production costs.
Since the beginning of this year,due to the tightening of raw material supply and seasonal factors,the domestic asphalt supply has remained at a low level.According to data from Longzhong Information,as of the week ending February 19th,the operating rate of domestic asphalt refineries was 26.4%,an increase compared to the previous week.The total planned asphalt production in China from January to March was 2.0985 million tons,2.108 million tons,and 2.386 million tons,respectively.The production in March increased by 278000 tons month on month and 8000 tons year-on-year.From the perspective of absolute profit of asphalt,due to raw material issues and local tight supply of spot goods,the overall performance of asphalt at the beginning of the year was stronger than that of crude oil,and the absolute profit level of asphalt has been restored.At the end of February,the theoretical profit of domestic refining and processing of diluted asphalt was around-550 yuan/ton,while the previous lowest was-826 yuan/ton.