中文
Recently, due to the impact of risk events such as the U.S. election and the second shock of European multi-national epidemic, the market’s risk aversion has increased, which depresses the international oil price and drags down the trend of asphalt price. Supported by domestic demand, the asphalt prices in northwest, North and northeast regions are stable, while in East China, South China and Shandong, the mainstream transaction prices in the market are slightly higher, with an increase of 50 yuan / ton. However, at the end of November, the high production of asphalt was still maintained, the social inventory level was in the middle, the resource supply was abundant, and the fatigue of international oil price was fully displayed, so it was difficult for the asphalt price to improve.
International oil price range oscillation
From the supply side, OPEC + organizations are obviously unable to meet their expectations. Russia and Saudi Arabia are discussing to extend the production reduction policy for three months next month, but other Gulf countries such as the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Iraq are in a tight state, and it is difficult to maintain the production reduction. At the same time, Libya’s production has rapidly increased to 800000 barrels / day, and the oil market is under great supply pressure. In terms of demand, the world is suffering from the second shock of the epidemic, and many European countries have implemented compulsory isolation measures again, and the prospect of crude oil demand is dim. Although domestic demand is still good, Zhejiang Petrochemical phase II and Lianyungang Shenghong Petrochemical Co., Ltd. are put into production in large quantities, and the Ministry of Commerce announced that the quota of non-state-owned crude oil will increase substantially in 2021. However, the high coastal stocks in China are also an objective factor restricting import. The contradiction between supply and demand in the oil market is still sharp. The market hopes that after the US election, the risk aversion will subside, the US government will launch a large-scale fiscal stimulus policy to boost economic expectations, and it is expected that the international oil price will maintain a range oscillation.
Affected by the continuous downturn of international oil price, the crude oil price of Mali Rui is lower, and the production cost continues to decline. In addition, the asphalt price remains stable, which drives the theoretical profit level of asphalt plant to increase. At present, the theoretical profit of domestic asphalt plant is 219 yuan / ton, and the profit level is increased by 133 yuan / ton month on month.
At present, the operating rate of the main refineries has increased steadily. According to the statistics of 72 major asphalt plants in China by Baichuan information, the total operating rate of domestic asphalt plants is 56%, maintaining a high operating rate. The supply of asphalt market increased, and the increase was mainly in Shandong, northeast and South China. In Shandong and North China, the closing demand of project acceleration increased, and most refineries’ shipment was stable; in Northeast China, the municipal acceleration demand continued, and refineries continued to deliver the preliminary contract. At present, the ratio of Singapore asphalt to high sulfur 180 CST fuel oil is 1.276, and the economy of producing asphalt is still better than that of high sulfur fuel oil. However, with the increasing demand of fuel oil for power generation in South Asia, part of asphalt production capacity is transferred to fuel oil.
It is suggested to hold empty bills
In the near future, the overall inventory level of refineries is in the low level, which supports the stable market price of asphalt in the short term. Due to the diversion of some asphalt resources to the marine fuel and coking market, there was no obvious pressure on the overall shipment, and some asphalt resources in the North continued to ship southward. In addition, some refineries signed partial orders at a price of about 2150 yuan / ton. In the later stage, with the gradual decline of terminal demand, the refinery will have more resources flowing to the coking market, while the resources in the sea will continue to increase. According to the statistics of Baichuan information, the refinery inventory level has been maintained at 34% in the near future, while the total social inventory remains at a high level of 850000 tons.
Supported by domestic infrastructure projects, the demand for asphalt in September and October is stronger than that in previous years, but the supply is also abundant. In the future, as the weather in the north gradually turns cool, the demand in the north will decline rapidly, and the resources going south will increase greatly, and the asphalt price will be affected. It is expected that the asphalt market will not improve before the release of winter storage policy.
To sum up, the international oil price is hovering at a low level, and the asphalt cost support is limited. At present, the refinery starts to maintain a high level, and the supply pressure in the future market is relatively high. It is expected that the trend of asphalt main contract in 2012 will be weak, and it is suggested that investors hold empty orders.