中文
I. price trend
In October, the propane market rose slightly, mainly in a narrow range of shocks. The average price of propane Market at the beginning of the month was 3925 yuan / ton, and the average price at the end of the month was 4042.5 yuan / ton, with an increase of 2.99% in the month, and the price was 21.69% lower than that of the same period last year.
II. Analysis of influencing factors
Propane prices are mainly volatile this month, with poor trading atmosphere in the market. As of October 28, Shandong Dongming Petrochemical Co., Ltd. and Shandong Haiyou Petrochemical Co., Ltd. have no propane in stock, so they will not offer any price temporarily. The ex factory price of propane of Tianjin Bohai Chemical Group supply and marketing company is 4060 yuan / ton, that of Shandong HSBC Petrochemical Company is 4100 yuan / ton, that of Shandong Hengyuan Petrochemical Co., Ltd. is 4170 yuan / ton, that of Shandong Binzhou Dayou group is 4120 yuan / ton, that of Shandong Zhonghai fine Chemical Co., Ltd. is 4020 yuan / ton, and that of Shandong Yuhuang Shengshi is 4020 yuan / ton. 4180 yuan / ton.
October was the peak demand season for propane, but except for the obvious increase in the market after the 11th holiday, the trend was relatively flat, and the overall increase did not meet expectations. At the beginning of the month, the manufacturer’s warehouse arrangement before the festival was relatively smooth, the inventory was low, and the downstream centralized replenishment after the festival. In addition, the CP price rose sharply in October, and the international crude oil recovered, which brought support to the market, and the price pushed up significantly. However, the trend of the international market was weak, which affected the market mentality. The downstream replenishment ended, and most of them were delisted. However, the overall production and sales pressure of the manufacturer is not great, and the price drops by a small margin. In late October, with the weather becoming cold gradually, propane seasonal rigid demand support is obvious, the demand in the north is more obvious, and the market stops falling and rising, but the atmosphere of high price transaction is not good, which restricts the price rise. At present, some enterprises are under certain sales pressure, but they still have certain support for the market just in need, and the manufacturer’s mentality of protecting the market is obvious.
Saudi Aramco in October CP announced that propane prices rose and butane prices rose. Propane rose to $420 / T, up $70 / T from last month; butane $435 / T, up $75 / T from last month. The c.i.f. cost of long-term propane is about 3737 yuan / ton, and butane is about 3854 yuan / ton.
III. future forecast
Propane analysts believe that: at present, seasonal rigid demand is still an important support for the market. In addition, CP expectations in November are not very volatile. Although the market transaction atmosphere is general, manufacturers have a strong price mentality, and there is little room for short-term decline. It is expected that the trend in November will be stable or rising.